Congrats Phillies

As Brad Lidge was coming into game, Tim McCarver and Joe Buck were talking about how Lidge was perfect on the season, I sent this message to Hoy:

Bayne: Was it Gary Anderson that was perfect for Vikings until he missed Game winning FG against Falcons?

Apologies for quoting without permission

Hoyazo: fuck you

After broken bat single I was sweating that I would be target in rant post but was spared.

More Bodog action on tap at 6:05

Bodog Pocket Pairs

I got dealt pocket Jacks once and pocket Kings 3 times.  Hand above was the only one of the 4 where an Ace didn't flop.  I tried to trap PokerPeaker but he cleverly escaped with a timely net disconnect.

We are now 1 week from the last Presidential election where my daughter can't vote.  The little liberal will fit in well in California.

Time to Bust a Pro

At 6:05 tonight we all have the chance to bust Eric 'Rizen' Lynch for $75 and an autographed copy of his book 'Winning Poker Tournaments One hand at a time' in an online poker tournament.

Tuesdays and Thursdays at 6:05 (Pacific) the series will run with cool bonus add ons.  

Each week top 3 get bonus $T, bubble is extended with 3 buyin refunds and there is end of series $3k tourney.

I managed to take a 3rd in 18 player SNG, win a supersat and took 16th in $4k.  One of these days I will dodge the 2 suckouts that take me out and get to Top 3 again.

End of Poker Content (as it were):

When I was 15 my family moved from Orlando, Florida to Westford, Massachusetts.  We moved in December and I think 1978 was one of the worst years for snow New England experienced.  OMG it was cold and there was a definite shock to my system going from running around outside playing basketball or baseball vs stuck inside shivering.  I probably gained 30 pounds that winter (which lasts until May I believe) from the drop off in activity.    Having spent most of my life to that point moving every 2 years I would adapt and make new friends but weather adjustment limited my new circle that 1st year to a couple of neighbors from bus stop, a few people on the chess team and a few people on the "Math Team" (I grew up in south, had no frckn idea what a "Math Team" was) but schools met in competition and took tests periodically.  

One member of math team was a freshman girl K who ended up taking 4 classes with me over the next two years.  K was certainly one of my 1st friends in Westford but lost touch with all of them because my parents moved to Virginia my 1st quarter in college and I have stopped for gas in Westford once (on ski trip) since but have never really been back.

In a pleasant surprise K emailed me Saturday and we ended up having a long IM during lunch Monday catching up.  Conversation flowed easily but the most shocking takeaway was that she was about my daughter's age when we met.  Where did the time go?

Slumps

The Bodog Poker Tourney series starts tomorrow.

In order to play you must first register here!

I've been a little more stressed at work, the last year has been strange in that main project I have worked on is a lower priority deliverable.  I have been working on higher priority stuff in spurts but suddenly in the last week a derivative of my design is becoming a higher priority.  

Sequia also was recently in the press due to opinion that this downturn is going to adversely impact valley.

My start up bankroll management has always been far superior to my poker bankroll management but I tend to run worse at poker when I think I may need the income.  In last 2 weeks I've overplayed TT a couple of times, been all in on turn only to be 2 outed a couple of times, run KK into AA 2 of the 9 times I was dealt KK and chopped the one time I ran KK into QQ.  

I tried 6 max cap PLO (stacked twice calling caps on turn when they had gutters that rivered), Limit O8 (so many nut lows river counterfeited which also made straights) and people "feeling" the most ridiculous pre-flop all in calls in PLO and being rewarded:

: shows [6s 8h Ad 2d] (a full house, Sixes full of Deuces)

In PLO8 maybe you can call off all your chips pre with this beauty but don't know about PLO.

In a desperate attempt to cleanse kharma I tried online craps (bad idea) and bet on Breeders Cup for a small loss but felt good about my handicapping in that I did hit 2 exactas and had a few horses run close but have 'bad trip'.

I took family to see Beverly Hills Chihuahua in a further attempt to cleanse but when I got home managed to get FullTilt runnign about 30 seconds to late to enter Fiddy.  I did check out my email and found that an old friend from high school had sent an email. I replied "I am that Bayne S from HS and of course I remember you".  Looked at K's Facebook profile and most shocking part is she might look 10 years older than I remember whereas I look closer to the real 30 years since high school. 

K would also not qualify for Don's definition of a slumpbuster but managed to cash in $14k, won an FTOPS 2 seat made a little in cash and have run pretty well in $4k this far.

Want to breakout for Bodog Blogger series and FTOPS.

I Beat the Deadline

I swore to my Father (Oxford County Republican Party Treasurer) that if UIGEA passed I was voting for the Democratic nominee in 2008 even if it was Hillary.

I had until 7 pm to register and despite the crowd at Registrars I turned in registration.

No idea how I am voting on the 30 propositions undoubtably on the ballot but will probably futilely cast a protest vote against my congressman for changing his vote on bailout bill.

I will be so pissed if I get called for jury duty.

Bodog Blogger Poker Series

The Bodog Poker Series returns Tuesday October 28th.  This fall there will be 15 tournies (Tuesdays and Thursdays) leading into the$3k final tourney prize pool.

Each tourney has added prizes and new wrinkle this year is Bodog Casino credit.  The 1st time my wife hears the dice sound effect on the computer it's gonna be big trouble but the rest of you may be able to risk it.

Online poker did not go well for me this weekend.  My only MTT cash was in DD A and that was a weak cash,  I played weaker than normal late while watching Rays defeat Sox.  Another Sunday quality play took me out, UTG raises to 3k (with TT), CO "jams" to 4500 with the mighty KTo and despite flopping 2 pair with QJo river Ace hands the pot to the donkey.

No one tell the wife but I did net a couple of hundred in online craps.  Luckily it lacks excitement of real craps so she has nothing to worry about.

Set over Set over Set Flop

We got all in on flop.

*** FLOP *** [9s 4c 7h]

crazyazn905 checks

zimek checks

Hal Lubarsky bets $12

bayne_s calls $12

CARATLADY folds

jefffalcone has 15 seconds left to act

jefffalcone calls $12

crazyazn905 folds

zimek raises to $59.85, and is all in

Hal Lubarsky raises to $193, and is all in

bayne_s calls $131.30, and is all in

jefffalcone has 15 seconds left to act

jefffalcone has requested TIME

jefffalcone calls $59.95, and is all in

Hal Lubarsky shows [As 2s 2h 9c]

bayne_s shows [9h 2c 9d Ah]

jefffalcone shows [7c 7s 5c Ac]

zimek shows [4d 6s 3h 4s]

Uncalled bet of $49.70 returned to Hal Lubarsky

*** TURN *** [9s 4c 7h] [5s]

*** RIVER *** [9s 4c 7h 5s] [3s]

Hal Lubarsky shows a flush, Ace high, for high and

Hal Lubarsky shows 5,4,3,2,A, for low

bayne_s shows a straight, Five high, for high and

bayne_s shows 5,4,3,2,A, for low

It must be good to be the pro

Sawx in Trouble

The Red Sox are in desperate straits.  They have won 7 consecutive LCS games facing elimination but I am still not comfortable that this is same team.  I think Sox fans need to pull out all the stops.

Having read Hoy yesterday it occurred to me that maybe Hoy was wrong and it was actually the Hammer Wife who woke up the bats.  I would even put her bat awakening skillz at 3:1 greater than Hoy.

I can't quite work out the logistics of me driving kid to/from school and getting to Westchester County so I think Waffles or WWonka69 (as IT says "the sexier Wonka") need to get to Westchester County and reignite the Sox bats.  Now that I type this it is obvious that Wonka is better choice for Westchester mission and Waffles should stay home and do his thing to warm up the Sox arms.

Bad Beat

Surpassed previous effort for selecting the biggest moving stock on the biggest moving day.

I had decided options premiums were too high especially for a $9 stock so bought shares for a change.

Sadly intent was to buy 1000 not 100 but I was already late for a meeting.  If mistake had gone the other way to 10k I don't think I would have survived the stress of the weekend or my wife's wrath as Schwab would have probably called house.

I can't honestly see how a Secretary of the Treasury, who was former Goldman Sachs CEO could allow Morgan Stanley to go under leaving only his former Investment bank as last of 5 Investment Banks.

At some point I will have to examine why I am so willing to gamble with Stocks, with start-up jobs, with craps and with PLO or PLO8, but play NLHE tight.

I blame Waffles

You are The Devil

Materiality. Material Force. Material temptation; sometimes obsession

The Devil is often a great card for business success; hard work and ambition.

Perhaps the most misunderstood of all the major arcana, the Devil is not really "Satan" at all, but Pan the half-goat nature god and/or Dionysius. These are gods of pleasure and abandon, of wild behavior and unbridled desires. This is a card about ambitions; it is also synonymous with temptation and addiction. On the flip side, however, the card can be a warning to someone who is too restrained, someone who never allows themselves to get passionate or messy or wild - or ambitious. This, too, is a form of enslavement. As a person, the Devil can stand for a man of money or erotic power, aggressive, controlling, or just persuasive. This is not to say a bad man, but certainly a powerful man who is hard to resist. The important thing is to remember that any chain is freely worn. In most cases, you are enslaved only because you allow it.

What Tarot Card are You?
Take the Test to Find Out.

90th Anniversary

I was listening to the Dan Patrick Show on my way to pick up the kid from school and learned today is the 90th anniversary of the Georgia Tech vs. Cumberland football game.

Final Score was 222-0.

Best stats from the game was GT was 0-0 passing but had 978 yards on 28 attempts with 20 rushing TDs.

Hopefully after seeing this Angels fans don't feel so bad about losing 4th playoff series to Red Sox.

W00t Live poker

Sadly went out 13th (10 paid) in my Morgan Hill poker tournament.  KTo raised too much from CO,  when I jammed he was getting 3.5:2 on his money and of course hit a K to beat QQ.

I successfully put 2 people on mild tilt and one person on severe tilt levels not seen so far this year.

2nd to last hand before rebuy ended I had 6600 chips and 68s.  Blinds were 300/600 so I raised to 1600 with main purpose being to be able to do rebuy and add at break, of course got 3 callers with A rag.  After I flopped pair and flush draw on A62 flop I felt jam was required and quadrupled up when I turned 2p and rivered flush.  The A rag that rivered 2p was not pleased.

Got moved to new table, picked up AA 1st hand and because it is how I run player to immediate right had QQ and felt need to shove to my reraise. Two hands later he raised again and I reraised and this time he chose to fold.  I did not show but said I had K"kings". While he was still muttering about picking up QQ and JJ in 3 hands and losing his stack player to his right raised bigger than he should have like he didn't want action and I looked at KK for real.  When I reraised and he called showing the suited JackAce I miraculously hit a King along with the Ace on flop and he stormed to cash table muttering about my card rackery.

Post my own bust out I wandered to cash game elated to see PL O8 being played with players who would go to felt with 3rd high or 3rd low.  Cruelly Mr JackAce got stacked by yours truly.  I did not bother to raise my A23J pre-flop as 7-9 players saw the flop whether it was $2 or $7 to see flop. AJA flop was beautiful, 8 on turn got JackAce to call pot bet trapping me as he was looking at A842, 5 on river was just cruel leaving him HU with 2nd nutz/2nd nutz while I had 4 perfect to scoop.

FYI: Waffle's dream girl M was there and sat to my immediate right most of night.

Extracting Value

I over limp pre because Fully_tilted0 is only one in pot so far and bets hard with 1 direction hands, rummyman and warrer have a bloggeresque hand selection criteria so I expect one of them to raise.

rummyman folds

Warrer folds

Illinoislb calls $1

calricky checks

No possible low, I check twice hoping board pairs and finally bet river.

bayne_s wins the pot ($7.60)

Latest Prop Bet

After watching above and realized Sarah Palin created the parody run by SNL I realized what new prop bet with Waffles had to be.

Bayne: you give me 2:1 odds and I will wager Palin is not McCain's running mate by Novemeber
sirfwalgman: wow thats an interesting bet
sirfwalgman: What date is the election?
Bayne: I think it is November 4th
sirfwalgman: 25 bucks
Bayne: I put up $25 to win $50?
sirfwalgman: only 25 because I think this is a total 50/50 proposition
sirfwalgman: oh
sirfwalgman: no
sirfwalgman: you put up 12.50 to win 25 lol
Bayne: okay
Bayne: $12.50 to win $25
sirfwalgman: lol
sirfwalgman: yeah
Bayne: it's a wager
sirfwalgman: ok
sirfwalgman: I think personally
sirfwalgman: it would be too embaressing for him to do that this late
sirfwalgman: even if she is a total wreck
sirfwalgman: but I could be wrong
Bayne: I think his will to win > risk of embarassment and he wanted Lieberman for VP anyway
sirfwalgman: she went from being a HUGE asset to being a joke
sirfwalgman: the Democrats must love this

Baseball Playoff Time

Met up with LJ and Lucko for SF Giants home finale, they claimed to be in town as birthday present but coincidentally this weekend was the culmination of the Folsom Street Fair (leatherweek) NSFW.  We met up at local bar so we could watch morning football games and the historic last game at Shea (and Mets elimination from playoffs SSDY).  

Good aspect of wife meeting LJ is I no longer seem obsessive about fantasy football.

Pathetically this was also 1st trip for family and I to see baseball game at AT&T park.  In my defense Red Sox don't visit.  I was disappointed that Manny took day off (what a surprise) so no opportunity to berate with my best boston accent.  Wife and daughter were troopers as neither really likes baseball but promise of taking them to The Stinking Rose kept daughter well behaved.  We will all reek of garlic for about 3 days as we went with traditional Garlic roasted in EVOO and butter with hint of anchovies appetizer.

The trip home was painful as route I am used to taking from North Beach to 101 was blocked for Folsom Street Festivities.  I was able to endure the traffic, the many leather clad people walking on the adjacent sidewalks until we passed a bear bar that was overflowing.  Daughter spotted a hairy man with large belly wearing short leather shorts and suspenders and said "Does that fat man think wearing those shorts and showing his belly think it will help him have S E X" (yes she spelled out sex).  I did not need that image in my head while driving so told daughter "Mommy will explain that to you after I am dead".  Evil daughter laughed and kept pushing my buttons but thankfully wife got her to stop tormenting me.

Edit: The car this morning had overwhelming garlic aroma and I had to drive with windows down.  I love The STinking Rose but may have to get rental next time.

Debate Night

Having opted not to vote myself and wife would vote for pro-choice Hoover over pro-life FDR we will drop daughter off at "8th Grade dance" and see a movie "Nights in Rodanthe" rather than watch alternating sound bites on talking points that passes for debate in this country.

My Grandfather lived in Nags Head, NC and his brother lived in Hateras, NC so I've been to Rodanthe.  After you stop swimming or fishing there isn't shit to do in Rodanthe.

The Great Schlep

The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.

My apologies to any MOT I may offend by posting w/o membership.

Victory

Waffles had a nice run but came up short in Mookie.  Surviving the donkey beats to cash in 4/9  Mookies is impressive.  Better luck next bet.

My own Mookie run when OMGItsPokerfool insta-called my AKs jam and rivered two pair with 54s (same fawking suit).

Skillz

Full Tilt Poker Game #8200877457: Blogger Skillz Game (58958300), Table 2 - 150/300 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 23:18:38 ET - 2008/09/23

Seat 1: bayne_s (16,050)

Seat 4: PirateLawyer (17,481)

Seat 6: lightning36 (2,949)

Seat 9: cemfredmd (2,520)

cemfredmd posts the big blind of 300

The button is in seat #6

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to bayne_s [3c Js 4s Jc]

bayne_s calls 300

PirateLawyer calls 300

cemfredmd: gg to both of you

bayne_s: ggs

lightning36 folds

cemfredmd checks

*** FLOP *** [Jd 9s Ks]

cemfredmd checks

3 pay, 4 left, PL has 6x 3rd, I have 5x 3rd.

bayne_s bets 900

PirateLawyer raises to 1,800

cemfredmd folds

To quote Herm Edwards: "You play to win the GAME" and I think I am 60/40

bayne_s raises to 6,300

lightning36: The princes and the paupers   lol

PirateLawyer raises to 17,181, and is all in

bayne_s calls 9,450, and is all in

PirateLawyer shows [4c Ts Qh Ad]

bayne_s shows [3c Js 4s Jc]

Uncalled bet of 1,431 returned to PirateLawyer

*** TURN *** [Jd 9s Ks] [5h]

*** RIVER *** [Jd 9s Ks 5h] [9d]

PirateLawyer shows a straight, King high

bayne_s shows a full house, Jacks full of Nines

bayne_s wins the pot (32,400) with a full house, Jacks full of Nines

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot 32,400 | Rake 0

Board: [Jd 9s Ks 5h 9d]

Seat 1: bayne_s showed [3c Js 4s Jc] and won (32,400) with a full house, Jacks full of Nines

Seat 4: PirateLawyer showed [4c Ts Qh Ad] and lost with a straight, King high

Seat 6: lightning36 (button) didn't bet (folded)

Seat 9: cemfredmd (big blind) folded on the Flop

32k, vs. 3k, 2500 and 1400 with 150/300 blinds the rest is a formality. But did bubble PL dirty.

Dealt to bayne_s [Jh 9d Kd 2c]

bayne_s raises to 1,050

PirateLawyer calls 981, and is all in

lightning36 folds

cemfredmd folds

bayne_s shows [Jh 9d Kd 2c]

PirateLawyer shows [9c Th Kh Jd]

Uncalled bet of 69 returned to bayne_s

*** FLOP *** [Ks 2s Qh]

*** TURN *** [Ks 2s Qh] [2h]

*** RIVER *** [Ks 2s Qh 2h] [7c]

bayne_s shows a full house, Twos full of Kings

PirateLawyer shows two pair, Kings and Twos

bayne_s wins the pot (2,412) with a full house, Twos full of Kings

PirateLawyer stands up

13 show up for the Mookie  and I have another score manana.

My Take on Bailout

First a disclaimer:

I took 2 classes with Dr. Biven in 1983, one of them was pass/fail.  The thing I remember most was a skinny 6'9" basketball player (who had no handle and no jump shot) telling another basketball player "man, all I need to know about economics is how to spend my million dollar NBA contract" after getting a D on a test.  I decided after the 1986 draft that John Salley knew more about economics than I did.

Treasury Secretary Paulsen has proposed a $700 billion bailout for Wall Street on top of all the other bailouts that Hoy mentioned today. Ben Stein had mentioned that "The amount of subprime that defaulted was at most - after recovery in liquidation - about $250 billion."  

Foreclosure rates are at 2% nationally and delinquency rates are at 6%. and US median price home is at ~$200k. For purposes of using round numbers we will work with 50 million as total number of mortgages in US.

$700 billion would seem to cover $14k/mortgage and would seem to be able to buy goverment ownership of 7% of every home.

If we are going socialist anyway why not try "Bubble Up Economics".

Give homeowners option to opt into program where current mortgage holders can choose to have goverment buy up to 10% of homes, in event of future foreclosure goverment gets sum invested back ahead of any recovered money to homeowner.

The 10% payment from goverment goes directly to mortgage holder and applies towards equity but a 1 time chance to refinance into fixed rate mortgage is also offered.  If there is future sale goverment gets (up to)  10% of gross. 

All the bundled mortgages and derivatives become stronger which reduces the banks issues.

All of this is a bad beat for me as I sold my house in 2007 anticipating the sub-prime mortgages would drive housing prices down and I would be able to buy after the dip in San Jose area.

My preference is still no bailout as I have prepared myself for it but if there is bailout rewarding those who stupidly overextended to get house seems better than rewarding thos who stupidly created  "weapons of financial mass destruction." (Warren Buffet's name for the financial derivatives).

On financial note I bought Asta Funding which is a company that is 78% off it's 52 week high and makes it's money buying "bad debt" at a discount and recouping more than expected.  Just in case Goverment is just giving money away.