Folding AA

Being the engineer I am I had to break down Sunday's hand a little further to examine the case for folding AA.


1st I look at actual odds of hands and see

QsQd 18 %
JdJh 16.3 %
AcKd 4.62 %
AsAh 60 %


folding means

QsQd 54%
JdJh 18%
AcKd 27%


I also looked for worse holdings to be up against and found replace AK with KK and AA drops to 54% and worst % I found was AsAh is 45% against KsKh, 5c6c, 9dTd. (Best was 93% against AKo, AKo and KK)


Telefonkiosk folds leaving him 3635 chips.

Scenarios:
1) Jorj wins (18%)
SEAT

2) bayne_s wins (54%)
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (13940 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (3635 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)


This will leave telefonkiosk as shorty, if we assume from chip counts he is 50% to outlast xxxx_kev then assign 27% SEAT.

3) TheLeeder wins, bayne_s 2nd (27 %)
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (3250 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (3635 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (11850 in chips)

This is ugly estimate but will for sake of math assign 33% chance of emerging in top 3 given 4th of 5 and 3 real short stacks. .33 x .27 = 9% SEAT.

4) TheLeeder wins, Jorj95 2nd (requires AKKJx board) 1%
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (3635 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (8425 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (11850 in chips)

If this happens almost certain seat.


Conclusion folding leads to seat 55% of time.

Telefonkiosk calls (35%)
1) Jorj or bayne_s wins or TheLeeder wins, bayne_s 2nd or Jorj95 2nd

NO SEAT

2) TheLeeder wins, Telefonkiosk 2nd, bayne_s 3rd (5%) requires KK on board
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (1180 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (5725 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (11850 in chips)

For purposes of estimate I am dead man Tefonkiosk 60% for seat

2% SEAT

3) Telefonkiosk wins, bayne_s wins side from Jorj (57%)
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (1180 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (16395 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)

almost certain seat

56% SEAT

3) Telefonkiosk wins, bayne_s loses side to Jorj (3%) (requires A and J no Q)
SEAT


Calling leads to Seat 61% of time.


Conclusion knowing the hands is that calling with AA is slightly better decision than folding AA.


Leading up to this hand Jorj95 is shoving a lot (which is his right as big stack), jorj having 2 random little cards inproves math for folding slightly and for calling slightly, jorj having KK improves math for folding significantly.

This would seem to be a pick your poison case and question of whether you believe you can win seat against xxxx_kev would swing decision. If I am Telefonkiosk I think decision this time is fold.