Tuesday, November 04, 2008
More Bodog PP
An Historic Day

Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Congrats Phillies
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Bodog Pocket Pairs

Monday, October 27, 2008
Time to Bust a Pro
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Slumps
Monday, October 20, 2008
I Beat the Deadline
Friday, October 17, 2008
Bodog Blogger Poker Series

Thursday, October 16, 2008
Set over Set over Set Flop

Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Sawx in Trouble
Monday, October 13, 2008
Bad Beat

I blame Waffles
You are The Devil
Materiality. Material Force. Material temptation; sometimes obsession
The Devil is often a great card for business success; hard work and ambition.
Perhaps the most misunderstood of all the major arcana, the Devil is not really "Satan" at all, but Pan the half-goat nature god and/or Dionysius. These are gods of pleasure and abandon, of wild behavior and unbridled desires. This is a card about ambitions; it is also synonymous with temptation and addiction. On the flip side, however, the card can be a warning to someone who is too restrained, someone who never allows themselves to get passionate or messy or wild - or ambitious. This, too, is a form of enslavement. As a person, the Devil can stand for a man of money or erotic power, aggressive, controlling, or just persuasive. This is not to say a bad man, but certainly a powerful man who is hard to resist. The important thing is to remember that any chain is freely worn. In most cases, you are enslaved only because you allow it.
What Tarot Card are You?
Take the Test to Find Out.
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
90th Anniversary
Sunday, October 05, 2008
W00t Live poker
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Extracting Value

Monday, September 29, 2008
Latest Prop Bet
After watching above and realized Sarah Palin created the parody run by SNL I realized what new prop bet with Waffles had to be.
Bayne: you give me 2:1 odds and I will wager Palin is not McCain's running mate by Novemeber
sirfwalgman: wow thats an interesting bet
sirfwalgman: What date is the election?
Bayne: I think it is November 4th
sirfwalgman: 25 bucks
Bayne: I put up $25 to win $50?
sirfwalgman: only 25 because I think this is a total 50/50 proposition
sirfwalgman: oh
sirfwalgman: no
sirfwalgman: you put up 12.50 to win 25 lol
Bayne: okay
Bayne: $12.50 to win $25
sirfwalgman: lol
sirfwalgman: yeah
Bayne: it's a wager
sirfwalgman: ok
sirfwalgman: I think personally
sirfwalgman: it would be too embaressing for him to do that this late
sirfwalgman: even if she is a total wreck
sirfwalgman: but I could be wrong
Bayne: I think his will to win > risk of embarassment and he wanted Lieberman for VP anyway
sirfwalgman: she went from being a HUGE asset to being a joke
sirfwalgman: the Democrats must love this
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Baseball Playoff Time
Friday, September 26, 2008
Debate Night
Having opted not to vote myself and wife would vote for pro-choice Hoover over pro-life FDR we will drop daughter off at "8th Grade dance" and see a movie "Nights in Rodanthe" rather than watch alternating sound bites on talking points that passes for debate in this country.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
The Great Schlep
The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Skillz

My Take on Bailout
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Saturday's with Pauly

Thursday, September 18, 2008
Best Roach Ever


Wednesday, September 17, 2008
The $102 Bounty in Mookie

Seat 2: TheSlinger (2,830)
Seat 3: RaisingCayne (3,810)
Seat 4: Joshuacarlsen (5,235)
Seat 5: ugly chimp (4,125)
Seat 6: irongirl01 (4,160)
Seat 7: Loretta8 (3,405)
Seat 8: SirFWALGMan (1,075)
Seat 9: BuddyDank (2,995)
TheSlinger posts the small blind of 30
RaisingCayne posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bayne_s [Kd Ks]
Joshuacarlsen folds
ugly chimp folds
irongirl01 folds
Loretta8 folds
SirFWALGMan calls 60
BuddyDank folds
bayne_s raises to 270
TheSlinger folds
RaisingCayne folds
SirFWALGMan raises to 1,075, and is all in
bayne_s calls 805
SirFWALGMan shows [Qh 4h]
bayne_s shows [Kd Ks]
*** FLOP *** [9s 7s 8d]
*** TURN *** [9s 7s 8d] [Qs]
*** RIVER *** [9s 7s 8d Qs] [Ah]
SirFWALGMan shows a pair of Queens
bayne_s shows a pair of Kings
bayne_s wins the pot (2,240) with a pair of Kings
SirFWALGMan: lol gg
SirFWALGMan stands up
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Bankroll Managment when running bad


Friday, September 12, 2008
Goverment at it's finest
Thursday, September 11, 2008
An important reminder for fathers

Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Mook / Back to school night

Monday, September 08, 2008
Running Bad

Sunday's on Pokerstars
Dear bayne_s You have requested to partake in PokerStars Responsible Gaming Self-Exclusion. Your exclusion period will start once you exit all tables. Your ability to make deposits and participate in any PokerStars gaming activity has now been closed for 1 days. You will be able to regain access after 2008/09/08 16:23 ET. During this period of exclusion you will be able to login and perform all normal functions except participate in games, make deposits or use transfer of funds. It's also important to note that PokerStars is unable to reverse Self Exclusions within the specified time. If you have questions about the self-exclusion program, please send them to wecare@pokerstars.com. If you are registered for any online tournaments during your exclusion period, you will be unregistered, and your buy-in will be refunded. Any other funds remaining in your account will remain there until such time you decide to cashout. Those funds will be available to you if you choose to play at the end of your exclusion period. In case you are interested, we are providing two links of organizations that offer free counseling and advice on responsible and problem gaming: www.gamcare.co.uk and http://www.gamblersanonymous.org Regards PokerStars Responsible Gaming Team
Friday, September 05, 2008
Communication is Key
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Your Quest is Futile
Daughter was telling me her vocabulary words for week as I chauffeuerd her home. She asked for my help in explaining the difference between empathy and sympathy. I thought my answer was outstanding, "I have sympathy for your pain as you go through your period but mommy can have empathy because she also understands what you are going through." Child's response was "you don't have sympathy either (further ranting tuned out)" Another vocabulary word for the week is democrat. Although we live in Northern California I felt the need to ask "Was republican a vocabulary word this week?" Answer as suspected was "no".
I discovered my lame check request from Bodog did not take as they "did not have address documentation". Decided I will join Chad on his Degenerate Gambler challenge during regular season.
Before the layoffs I had placed a $30 bet on the Rams to win NFC @ 30:1, and $70 on Rams to win Super Bowl @75:1. These were part of a hedge plan discussed with my sports betting sensei and I will merely require Rams to make playoffs to turn profit.
I have also followed Chad's lead this week and will win $20 each on Dallas under, Giants and Lions. I also placed a small parlay bet on all 3. I will be profitable at 2/3 correct. Bets are placed and I have most doubt about the under, Chad is correct that execution is generally poor the 1st week of season but defensive breakdowns lead to points, offensive breakdowns lead to turnovers which also lead to points.
Monday, September 01, 2008
Draft Results

1 other team in league has any FFL experience beyond last season. Last year team that drafted Tomlinson, Moss and Brady was tearing up league 8-2 (2 losses to moi)
MiamiDon invited me into this league last season. Got 1st pick which means Tomlinson and pray at RB. Romo being available at pick 20 forces me to deal with being a Romosexual this season. WR are decent but one of my pupu platter running backs need to emerge.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Booooooooooooooooooooooom

Waffles and LJ returned to normal form in Mookie last night. It was BEAUTIFUL from a prop bet standpoint!1st RaisingCayne trapped waffles TWICE then LJ demonstrated all aspects of her game (suckoutistry, aggression, cardrackery) leaving a string of kills not seen since the governator in Commando on her way to victory.
Mad props to LJ for showing waffles how not to be the final loser in a tourney.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Talent
Demon daughter (nickname coined by IT) wanted to watch America's Got Talent. Seeing Derrick Barry perform in school girl outfit was a bit over the top IMHO.
Wife walked into room and commented "she sounds good and is cuter than Britney", to convey information quickly I responded "he's cuter than Britney". Demon daughter was left confused by this and a long (and amusing discussion ensued between wife and daughter).
Waffles rubs one out after watching clip is 8:5.
Poker sucked last night.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Changes
I am sure a lot of you are not sympathetic but I have grown quite accustomed to waking up later and rolling into work at 9ish. Worst part is that my wife may grow accustomed to me dropping the kid off and want this to continue when she is allowed to drive again.
This means no more DS PLO at 0045, no more Turbo Fiddy at 0100 on a school night.
Mr Bodog seems to have given up on Bodog, that was enough for me to request a check.
My deepest run in a tourney this weekend was in a WCOOP ME sat. Top 19 got seats, 20-32 got $320, 33rd got $240. Had 3 hours of solid play sitting with 30th of 40 stacks.
I was playing a step 1 where 3 handed I call a shove from BB with AA, Sb had 50 more chips than I and A6s and rivered a flush. I reacted by shoving 11 BBs with KQo UTG + 1 in ME sat and lost to the AKo that naturally called from MP. I took the 77 limp calling a shove and cracking my KK much better 12 hands prior in ME sat because I at least had satisfaction of watching that donkey get AA cracked after limping pre a little later.
Waffles has posted a few strategic snippets from his future post "Breaking Even at Poker", this is a can't miss read,
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Poker Free Post

Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Folding AA
1st I look at actual odds of hands and see
QsQd 18 %
JdJh 16.3 %
AcKd 4.62 %
AsAh 60 %
folding means
QsQd 54%
JdJh 18%
AcKd 27%
I also looked for worse holdings to be up against and found replace AK with KK and AA drops to 54% and worst % I found was AsAh is 45% against KsKh, 5c6c, 9dTd. (Best was 93% against AKo, AKo and KK)
Telefonkiosk folds leaving him 3635 chips.
Scenarios:
1) Jorj wins (18%)
SEAT
2) bayne_s wins (54%)
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (13940 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (3635 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)
This will leave telefonkiosk as shorty, if we assume from chip counts he is 50% to outlast xxxx_kev then assign 27% SEAT.
3) TheLeeder wins, bayne_s 2nd (27 %)
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (3250 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (3635 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (11850 in chips)
This is ugly estimate but will for sake of math assign 33% chance of emerging in top 3 given 4th of 5 and 3 real short stacks. .33 x .27 = 9% SEAT.
4) TheLeeder wins, Jorj95 2nd (requires AKKJx board) 1%
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (3635 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (8425 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (11850 in chips)
If this happens almost certain seat.
Conclusion folding leads to seat 55% of time.
Telefonkiosk calls (35%)
1) Jorj or bayne_s wins or TheLeeder wins, bayne_s 2nd or Jorj95 2nd
NO SEAT
2) TheLeeder wins, Telefonkiosk 2nd, bayne_s 3rd (5%) requires KK on board
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (1180 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (5725 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (11850 in chips)
For purposes of estimate I am dead man Tefonkiosk 60% for seat
2% SEAT
3) Telefonkiosk wins, bayne_s wins side from Jorj (57%)
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (1180 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (16395 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)
almost certain seat
56% SEAT
3) Telefonkiosk wins, bayne_s loses side to Jorj (3%) (requires A and J no Q)
SEAT
Calling leads to Seat 61% of time.
Conclusion knowing the hands is that calling with AA is slightly better decision than folding AA.
Leading up to this hand Jorj95 is shoving a lot (which is his right as big stack), jorj having 2 random little cards inproves math for folding slightly and for calling slightly, jorj having KK improves math for folding significantly.
This would seem to be a pick your poison case and question of whether you believe you can win seat against xxxx_kev would swing decision. If I am Telefonkiosk I think decision this time is fold.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Baby Steps
I used the $W won to start playing WCOOP steps and have been taking the step 4 branch and playing the WCOOP 6 SNG that awards 3 seats and 2 $200 prizes, but on Sunday I initally opted for the 18 player PLO seat route. It just would not fill so I played a step 4 and received:
Dear bayne_s,
You finished the tournament in 1st place.You have won an admission ticket to 'WCOOP Step 5'
So I continued into step 5.

Table '102727750 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4100 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (4875 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (4285 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (10790 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (2950 in chips)
xxxx kev: posts the ante 50
bayne_s: posts the ante 50
Telefonkiosk: posts the ante 50
Jorj95: posts the ante 50
TheLeeder: posts the ante 50
bayne_s: posts small blind 300
Telefonkiosk: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bayne_s [Qs Qd]
Jorj95: raises 9600 to 10200
TheLeeder: calls 2900 and is all-in
xxxx kev: folds
bayne_s: calls 4525 and is all-in
Telefonkiosk: calls 3635 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (5375) returned to Jorj95
*** FLOP *** [7s 5c 7c]
*** TURN *** [7s 5c 7c] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [7s 5c 7c Jc] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
bayne_s: shows [Qs Qd] (a full house, Sevens full of Queens)
Jorj95: shows [Jd Jh] (a full house, Jacks full of Sevens)
Jorj95 collected 1180 from side pot-2
Telefonkiosk: shows [Ah As] (a full house, Sevens full of Aces)
Jorj95 collected 4005 from side pot-1
TheLeeder: shows [Ac Kd] (three of a kind, Sevens)
Jorj95 collected 11850 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 17035 Main pot 11850. Side pot-1 4005. Side pot-2 1180. Rake 0
Board [7s 5c 7c Jc 7h]
Seat 2: xxxx kev (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: bayne_s (small blind) showed [Qs Qd] and lost with a full house, Sevens full of Queens
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (big blind) showed [Ah As] and lost with a full house, Sevens full of Aces
Seat 8: Jorj95 showed [Jd Jh] and won (17035) with a full house, Jacks full of Sevens
Seat 9: TheLeeder showed [Ac Kd] and lost with three of a kind, Sevens
Friday, August 15, 2008
Late Night poker winding down.
LJ : no turbo fiddy?
Bayne: 10% swap?
LJ: ok
LJ: wait r u in it?
Bayne: not yet
LJ: i will not swap 10% of 0
Bayne: yet was key word
Bayne: 10% swap?
LJ: r u in?
Bayne: yes
LJ: ok

I was 3rd chip stack at break which obviously inhibits my roach game. Lost a couple of flips because blinds can't ever fold blackjack 20s and then jammed presto from CO into QQ to exit.
Thanks LJ for talking me into playing, no I was really not trying to angleshoot on swap :)

75 entrants in 0045 breaks previous high mark I've seen of 67. I doubled up early, was top 4 stack at break but with 15 left (9 paid) I assumed Dank position.
Had new omatard Piratelawyer on rail for most of tourney and he got to witness some fine suckoutistry from VanVoten. (VanVoten did show as being from Sweden so you can make whatever assumptions you want to make of play as long as you remember PROFILING IS WRONG)
Full Tilt Poker Game #7654375356: $50 + $5 Tournament (58116126), Table 7 - 200/400 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 3:19:22 ET - 2008/08/15
Seat 2: bayne_s (7,843)
Seat 3: GaijinB (18,854)
Seat 4: RJK1027 (13,358)
Seat 5: Eidestine (24,311)
Seat 7: vickisriver (8,293)
Seat 8: VanVoten (23,494)
vickisriver posts the small blind of 200
VanVoten posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bayne_s [9h 5s 5d Qd]
bayne_s folds
GaijinB raises to 1,400
RJK1027 calls 1,400
Eidestine folds
vickisriver folds
VanVoten raises to 5,800
GaijinB calls 4,400
RJK1027 folds
*** FLOP *** [3d Qs 9d]
VanVoten bets 13,200
GaijinB calls 13,054, and is all in
VanVoten shows [3c Tc 2h 4h]
GaijinB shows [Ad Ks 6d 2s]
Uncalled bet of 146 returned to VanVoten
*** TURN *** [3d Qs 9d] [3s]
*** RIVER *** [3d Qs 9d 3s] [2d]
VanVoten shows a full house, Threes full of Twos
GaijinB shows a flush, Ace high
VanVoten wins the pot (39,308) with a full house, Threes full of Twos
GaijinB stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 39,308 Rake 0
Board: [3d Qs 9d 3s 2d]
Seat 2: bayne_s didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: GaijinB showed [Ad Ks 6d 2s] and lost with a flush, Ace high
Seat 4: RJK1027 folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Eidestine (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: vickisriver (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: VanVoten (big blind) showed [3c Tc 2h 4h] and won (39,308) with a full house, Threes full of Twos
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
400th post
5 posts correcting Hoy hand histories.
40 lame brags (sadly bragging about fewer than 40 tournies)
240 bad beat stories.
4 advertising posts.
10 with strategic poker ideas.
15 family stories.
60 tournament pimps.
20 links to things I found amusing.
0 chronicling my sexual exploits (MiamiDon and Waffles) should remain source for those.
I took the Event 6 exit from the Poker Stars WCOOP Steps last night. I am 2/2 cashing in Step 4 tickets for Event 6 seats. 2/12 converting Step 3 tickets to Step 4 tickets (but 7/12 at keeping step 3 tickets). My success rate gets progressively worse in Step 2s and Step 1s as play is worse but higher variance is introduced.
Edit: had to include chat from lunchtime step 1
amelhem [observer]: nice call preflop idiot
Yes it was questionable but he flopped nut flush draw and oesd with 2 overs with A8s and amelhem raised jammed AQo unimproved on flop. There is so much poker wisdom shared in chat at a Step 1 that they should be played for educational value.
While in Las Vegas I did place a $50 bet on Rams to win Super Bowl for me and $20 bet on Jets to win Super Bowl for VP (yes he is cheesehead). I will try hedging strategy that has been suggested by a known sports bettor if Rams make playoffs.
Discussion of Rams hedge did lead me to hedge a craps Fire Bet this weekend. I had made a wtf $3 Firebet and Dan had already hit 4 unique points for 25:1 payoff. Once he rolled a 4 which was 5th unique point rather than backing up passline bet with odds I did $200 "lay" of 4. I was hammered so did not get hedge correct but if he hits 4 I collect ($750-$200) vs if he misses I get $100. A $500 lay would have guaranteed $250 profit and possibly a chance to hedge 6th number.
Mookie Night

Tuesday, August 12, 2008
So Hungover
Played Planet Hollywood's 2 pm Poker tourney. Took bottom cash when with blinds at 3k/6k UTG +1 shoved for 17k, shorty called for 2k and I called holding AQo with 20k behind and lost to KJo. From 20 players down tourney was 1 move poker and I went card dead from 14 players left on. I did manage a couple of steals but no confrontations won to accumulate chips.
I also gave Saturday Night Venetian a chance and played flawless poker IMHO. 1st three hands were reasonable pre-flop folds, 4th hand I reraised an EP raiser holding QQ. EP called my raise. Flops was Q82 rainbow and I felt compelled to call all in after I was checkraised on the flop. AQs went runner runner flush and IGHN with more time for craps.
Harrah's properties have moved to paying 6:5 on Blackjack in the low roller areas. IMHO the game is no longer blackjack, should be forced to be given a different name and tables should be avoided until 3:2 payoff is restored.
Other observation is the prostitutes seemed more aggressive this year than in past. When we walked the strip they would jump in path of our group of 6 and each time blocked the path of Dave who ironically also would have most money being currently retired after a successful start-up. Either they smell the money or go after the smaller dude to avoid risk of me trampling while not fully paying attention. I also saw casino security removing pros from gaming areas a couple of times. Lesson from that is casinos don't like gambling to be impeded.
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
Will Order Soon
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Happy Birthday Tao of Poker

Sunday, August 03, 2008
WCOOP

WCOOP 16 12-Sep Fri 16:30 $215 PL Omaha [1R1A] $300,000
Friday, August 01, 2008
The Jason Bay Era begins

The maps for Page 2 polls are always interesting. When the question is who will win next golf tournament Tiger Woods or Field? 49 states choose Tiger, Nevada always chooses field. Today's Manny legacy poll is interesting because as big a goofball as Manny is I have to believe the Massachusett respondents got it right.
Over his career Manny averages 39 doubles, 40 HomeRuns and 130 RBIs a season. Albert Pujols has got to be the only right handed hitter more feared in majors today and he has been doing it half as long.
If wagering were available I would wager that Scott Boras orchestrated most of this in order to get paid. It will be interesting to see how much the Cubs, Mets or even Yankees shell out to add Manny to lineup next season.
It is a sad day in Red Sox nation when Manny has to go because he has quit on team.









