Thursday, July 08, 2010

"Math is Stupid"

  • sirfwalgman: math is stupid
  • sirfwalgman: "I have two children, one is a boy who prefers the colour Red. What is the probability I have two boys".

    As we know, without the modifier, the probability is 1/3*

  • sirfwalgman: it's 50/50 that your other kid is a boy period right?
  • sirfwalgman: and whats the difference between BG and GB
  • Me: it is 5050 that you have 1 boy if 1 child
  • Me: it is also 50/50 2nd child is boy
  • Me: it is the classic Let's Make a deal Monty Hall problem
  • sirfwalgman: not according to moronic statistics people
  • Me: dude
  • sirfwalgman: I am currently idle.
  • sirfwalgman: ya
  • Me: you fail to understanbd either problem
  • sirfwalgman: aparently
  • Me: if you have 2 children it is 25 % you will have 2 girls, 25% you will have 2 boys
  • Me: and 50% you have one of each
  • Me: do we agree?
  • sirfwalgman: i said that
  • Me: If child is already born than you have case where questioner intentionally picked boy
  • Me: so there are 3 cases available
  • Me: and 2 of the cases other child is girl
  • Me: but probability of future child being boy is 50/50
  • Me: because questioner has no control

  • I spend a little too much of my time each day trying to explain probabilities to waffles.

Probability from work yesterday:
Project manager came back from his vacation yesterday.
Odds of him applying pressure on slowest part of project when he returned is obviously 100%
(Similar odds of me missing VeryJosie and Mookie also 100%)

One of task was to help newest member of project team get the 10 people who have to approve a board being ready for build to sign off.

I was assigned 4 names randomly, 2 other people got 3 names.

Half of the 10 people had already approved.

What were the odds my 4 randomly assigned people had already approved?
Waffles don't even waste your time answering.


SirFWALGMan said...

It depends on how much you want trained ones.

CEMfromMD said...

2.38% - I would explain how I got that answer, but I dont want Waffles hurting himself with the math.