Booooooooooooooooooooooom

Waffles and LJ returned to normal form in Mookie last night. It was BEAUTIFUL from a prop bet standpoint!

1st RaisingCayne trapped waffles TWICE then LJ demonstrated all aspects of her game (suckoutistry, aggression, cardrackery) leaving a string of kills not seen since the governator in Commando on her way to victory.

Mad props to LJ for showing waffles how not to be the final loser in a tourney.

Talent

Demon daughter (nickname coined by IT) wanted to watch America's Got Talent. Seeing Derrick Barry perform in school girl outfit was a bit over the top IMHO.

Wife walked into room and commented "she sounds good and is cuter than Britney", to convey information quickly I responded "he's cuter than Britney". Demon daughter was left confused by this and a long (and amusing discussion ensued between wife and daughter).

Waffles rubs one out after watching clip is 8:5.

Poker sucked last night.

Changes

Tomorrow for the 1st time in 2 years I have to wake up at 7:00 am!!

I am sure a lot of you are not sympathetic but I have grown quite accustomed to waking up later and rolling into work at 9ish. Worst part is that my wife may grow accustomed to me dropping the kid off and want this to continue when she is allowed to drive again.

This means no more DS PLO at 0045, no more Turbo Fiddy at 0100 on a school night.

Mr Bodog seems to have given up on Bodog, that was enough for me to request a check.

My deepest run in a tourney this weekend was in a WCOOP ME sat. Top 19 got seats, 20-32 got $320, 33rd got $240. Had 3 hours of solid play sitting with 30th of 40 stacks.

I was playing a step 1 where 3 handed I call a shove from BB with AA, Sb had 50 more chips than I and A6s and rivered a flush. I reacted by shoving 11 BBs with KQo UTG + 1 in ME sat and lost to the AKo that naturally called from MP. I took the 77 limp calling a shove and cracking my KK much better 12 hands prior in ME sat because I at least had satisfaction of watching that donkey get AA cracked after limping pre a little later.

Waffles has posted a few strategic snippets from his future post "Breaking Even at Poker", this is a can't miss read,

Poker Free Post

or

I was thinking as I watched two wet women embracing as they rolled around in sand will Kerri or Misty be this generation's version of Ginger or MarAnne?

The I ran across this hilarious article that brought tears to my eyes.

My apologies to my blog reader's that are offended that I have contributed to Satan's work.

Folding AA

Being the engineer I am I had to break down Sunday's hand a little further to examine the case for folding AA.


1st I look at actual odds of hands and see

QsQd 18 %
JdJh 16.3 %
AcKd 4.62 %
AsAh 60 %


folding means

QsQd 54%
JdJh 18%
AcKd 27%


I also looked for worse holdings to be up against and found replace AK with KK and AA drops to 54% and worst % I found was AsAh is 45% against KsKh, 5c6c, 9dTd. (Best was 93% against AKo, AKo and KK)


Telefonkiosk folds leaving him 3635 chips.

Scenarios:
1) Jorj wins (18%)
SEAT

2) bayne_s wins (54%)
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (13940 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (3635 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)


This will leave telefonkiosk as shorty, if we assume from chip counts he is 50% to outlast xxxx_kev then assign 27% SEAT.

3) TheLeeder wins, bayne_s 2nd (27 %)
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (3250 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (3635 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (11850 in chips)

This is ugly estimate but will for sake of math assign 33% chance of emerging in top 3 given 4th of 5 and 3 real short stacks. .33 x .27 = 9% SEAT.

4) TheLeeder wins, Jorj95 2nd (requires AKKJx board) 1%
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (3635 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (8425 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (11850 in chips)

If this happens almost certain seat.


Conclusion folding leads to seat 55% of time.

Telefonkiosk calls (35%)
1) Jorj or bayne_s wins or TheLeeder wins, bayne_s 2nd or Jorj95 2nd

NO SEAT

2) TheLeeder wins, Telefonkiosk 2nd, bayne_s 3rd (5%) requires KK on board
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (1180 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (5725 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (11850 in chips)

For purposes of estimate I am dead man Tefonkiosk 60% for seat

2% SEAT

3) Telefonkiosk wins, bayne_s wins side from Jorj (57%)
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4050 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (1180 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (16395 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (5375 in chips)

almost certain seat

56% SEAT

3) Telefonkiosk wins, bayne_s loses side to Jorj (3%) (requires A and J no Q)
SEAT


Calling leads to Seat 61% of time.


Conclusion knowing the hands is that calling with AA is slightly better decision than folding AA.


Leading up to this hand Jorj95 is shoving a lot (which is his right as big stack), jorj having 2 random little cards inproves math for folding slightly and for calling slightly, jorj having KK improves math for folding significantly.

This would seem to be a pick your poison case and question of whether you believe you can win seat against xxxx_kev would swing decision. If I am Telefonkiosk I think decision this time is fold.

Baby Steps

I started my $W quest with an $10.50 expenditure in a $5.50 rebuy to a WCOOP 6 satellite.
I used the $W won to start playing WCOOP steps and have been taking the step 4 branch and playing the WCOOP 6 SNG that awards 3 seats and 2 $200 prizes, but on Sunday I initally opted for the 18 player PLO seat route. It just would not fill so I played a step 4 and received:

Dear bayne_s,

You finished the tournament in 1st place.You have won an admission ticket to 'WCOOP Step 5'

So I continued into step 5.

And this hand is how step 6 ended:

This may be sickest final hand stars has this year for seat (top 3 get seat):

Table '102727750 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: xxxx kev (4100 in chips)
Seat 5: bayne_s (4875 in chips)
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (4285 in chips)
Seat 8: Jorj95 (10790 in chips)
Seat 9: TheLeeder (2950 in chips)
xxxx kev: posts the ante 50
bayne_s: posts the ante 50
Telefonkiosk: posts the ante 50
Jorj95: posts the ante 50
TheLeeder: posts the ante 50
bayne_s: posts small blind 300
Telefonkiosk: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bayne_s [Qs Qd]
Jorj95: raises 9600 to 10200
TheLeeder: calls 2900 and is all-in
xxxx kev: folds
bayne_s: calls 4525 and is all-in
Telefonkiosk: calls 3635 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (5375) returned to Jorj95
*** FLOP *** [7s 5c 7c]
*** TURN *** [7s 5c 7c] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [7s 5c 7c Jc] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
bayne_s: shows [Qs Qd] (a full house, Sevens full of Queens)
Jorj95: shows [Jd Jh] (a full house, Jacks full of Sevens)
Jorj95 collected 1180 from side pot-2
Telefonkiosk: shows [Ah As] (a full house, Sevens full of Aces)
Jorj95 collected 4005 from side pot-1
TheLeeder: shows [Ac Kd] (three of a kind, Sevens)
Jorj95 collected 11850 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 17035 Main pot 11850. Side pot-1 4005. Side pot-2 1180. Rake 0
Board [7s 5c 7c Jc 7h]
Seat 2: xxxx kev (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: bayne_s (small blind) showed [Qs Qd] and lost with a full house, Sevens full of Queens
Seat 6: Telefonkiosk (big blind) showed [Ah As] and lost with a full house, Sevens full of Aces
Seat 8: Jorj95 showed [Jd Jh] and won (17035) with a full house, Jacks full of Sevens
Seat 9: TheLeeder showed [Ac Kd] and lost with three of a kind, Sevens

Late Night poker winding down.

I probably only have another week of late night poker as I will be daughter's School "Bus" driver starting in week. I was busy playing 2 WCOOP Step 1s, and signed up for 0045 PLO since I saw Lee Watkinson was playing so knew it would be big turnout. When IM popped up:

LJ : no turbo fiddy?
Bayne: 10% swap?
LJ: ok
LJ: wait r u in it?
Bayne: not yet
LJ: i will not swap 10% of 0
Bayne: yet was key word
Bayne: 10% swap?
LJ: r u in?
Bayne: yes
LJ: ok



I was 3rd chip stack at break which obviously inhibits my roach game. Lost a couple of flips because blinds can't ever fold blackjack 20s and then jammed presto from CO into QQ to exit.
Thanks LJ for talking me into playing, no I was really not trying to angleshoot on swap :)



75 entrants in 0045 breaks previous high mark I've seen of 67. I doubled up early, was top 4 stack at break but with 15 left (9 paid) I assumed Dank position.

Had new omatard Piratelawyer on rail for most of tourney and he got to witness some fine suckoutistry from VanVoten. (VanVoten did show as being from Sweden so you can make whatever assumptions you want to make of play as long as you remember PROFILING IS WRONG)

Full Tilt Poker Game #7654375356: $50 + $5 Tournament (58116126), Table 7 - 200/400 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 3:19:22 ET - 2008/08/15
Seat 2: bayne_s (7,843)
Seat 3: GaijinB (18,854)
Seat 4: RJK1027 (13,358)
Seat 5: Eidestine (24,311)
Seat 7: vickisriver (8,293)
Seat 8: VanVoten (23,494)
vickisriver posts the small blind of 200
VanVoten posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bayne_s [9h 5s 5d Qd]
bayne_s folds
GaijinB raises to 1,400
RJK1027 calls 1,400
Eidestine folds
vickisriver folds
VanVoten raises to 5,800
GaijinB calls 4,400
RJK1027 folds
*** FLOP *** [3d Qs 9d]
VanVoten bets 13,200
GaijinB calls 13,054, and is all in
VanVoten shows [3c Tc 2h 4h]
GaijinB shows [Ad Ks 6d 2s]
Uncalled bet of 146 returned to VanVoten
*** TURN *** [3d Qs 9d] [3s]
*** RIVER *** [3d Qs 9d 3s] [2d]
VanVoten shows a full house, Threes full of Twos
GaijinB shows a flush, Ace high
VanVoten wins the pot (39,308) with a full house, Threes full of Twos
GaijinB stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 39,308 Rake 0
Board: [3d Qs 9d 3s 2d]
Seat 2: bayne_s didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: GaijinB showed [Ad Ks 6d 2s] and lost with a flush, Ace high
Seat 4: RJK1027 folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Eidestine (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: vickisriver (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: VanVoten (big blind) showed [3c Tc 2h 4h] and won (39,308) with a full house, Threes full of Twos

400th post

A rough summary estimate:

5 posts correcting Hoy hand histories.

40 lame brags (sadly bragging about fewer than 40 tournies)

240 bad beat stories.

4 advertising posts.

10 with strategic poker ideas.

15 family stories.

60 tournament pimps.

20 links to things I found amusing.

0 chronicling my sexual exploits (MiamiDon and Waffles) should remain source for those.

I took the Event 6 exit from the Poker Stars WCOOP Steps last night. I am 2/2 cashing in Step 4 tickets for Event 6 seats. 2/12 converting Step 3 tickets to Step 4 tickets (but 7/12 at keeping step 3 tickets). My success rate gets progressively worse in Step 2s and Step 1s as play is worse but higher variance is introduced.

Edit: had to include chat from lunchtime step 1
amelhem [observer]: nice call preflop idiot
Yes it was questionable but he flopped nut flush draw and oesd with 2 overs with A8s and amelhem raised jammed AQo unimproved on flop. There is so much poker wisdom shared in chat at a Step 1 that they should be played for educational value.

While in Las Vegas I did place a $50 bet on Rams to win Super Bowl for me and $20 bet on Jets to win Super Bowl for VP (yes he is cheesehead). I will try hedging strategy that has been suggested by a known sports bettor if Rams make playoffs.

Discussion of Rams hedge did lead me to hedge a craps Fire Bet this weekend. I had made a wtf $3 Firebet and Dan had already hit 4 unique points for 25:1 payoff. Once he rolled a 4 which was 5th unique point rather than backing up passline bet with odds I did $200 "lay" of 4. I was hammered so did not get hedge correct but if he hits 4 I collect ($750-$200) vs if he misses I get $100. A $500 lay would have guaranteed $250 profit and possibly a chance to hedge 6th number.

Mookie Night

I have no idea why I entered this. No way in hell I want to play Razz FTOPS.

I am still tired from weekend and now too tilted to sleep.

The incident from this weekend's trip that will be remembered longest occurred surprisingly enough at a craps table. A Las Vegas rookie was on the trip and played craps for 1st time. 1st time he rolled he scored me 8 place bets on 8 and 7 place bets on 6. But he has read the wizard and knows that don't pass is a slightly more favorable bet than pass and chose to bet Don't Pass when it was my turn to roll. I was a bit offended and reacted by making the UT "Hook em Horns" gesture at him and teling him "Mess with the Bull, get the Horns".

My 1st roll was a 7.

He bet Don't pass again.

He heard "Mess with the Bull, get the Horns" and saw gesture again.

I rolled a 7.

He doubled his bet on Don't Pass.

He heard "Mess with the Bull, get the Horns" and saw gesture again. Strangers at table were laughing and telling him to keep making me mad.

I rolled a 7.

He bet Don't pass again and got whiny about me trying to break him when I made so much money off him.

Mess with the Bull, get the Horns" and saw gesture again.

I rolled an 11.

He switched to Pass.

Sadly I rolled a 3.

He did not bet.

I rolled a 7.

He bet pass again.

I rolled a 3.

He bet his last $3 in chips on don't pass.

Sadly I hit a bunch of numbers but failed in my quest to make the point and get last $3.

Mookie is tonight, I anticipate an early waffles exit.

Quick Pimps

I visited above site today and this story cracked me up.

My favorite weekly tournament also got a little bit better!

Thanks Pauly!

So Hungover

5 former co-workers and I went to Las Vegas for weekend.

Played Planet Hollywood's 2 pm Poker tourney. Took bottom cash when with blinds at 3k/6k UTG +1 shoved for 17k, shorty called for 2k and I called holding AQo with 20k behind and lost to KJo. From 20 players down tourney was 1 move poker and I went card dead from 14 players left on. I did manage a couple of steals but no confrontations won to accumulate chips.

I also gave Saturday Night Venetian a chance and played flawless poker IMHO. 1st three hands were reasonable pre-flop folds, 4th hand I reraised an EP raiser holding QQ. EP called my raise. Flops was Q82 rainbow and I felt compelled to call all in after I was checkraised on the flop. AQs went runner runner flush and IGHN with more time for craps.

Harrah's properties have moved to paying 6:5 on Blackjack in the low roller areas. IMHO the game is no longer blackjack, should be forced to be given a different name and tables should be avoided until 3:2 payoff is restored.

Other observation is the prostitutes seemed more aggressive this year than in past. When we walked the strip they would jump in path of our group of 6 and each time blocked the path of Dave who ironically also would have most money being currently retired after a successful start-up. Either they smell the money or go after the smaller dude to avoid risk of me trampling while not fully paying attention. I also saw casino security removing pros from gaming areas a couple of times. Lesson from that is casinos don't like gambling to be impeded.

I'm not ordering this!

Had another couple of beats with KK in tournaments, 1st to QQ on rivered Qnd flop was KQ9, turn T river J.

I will be offline a couple of days for a quick Vegas trip. Have a good weekend!

Will Order Soon

Sorry Wife of Dr. Chako.

We may have to have a prop bet on Sept. 28th game with a jersey wearing on the line!

Happy Birthday Tao of Poker

I will certainly play tonight.

I could certainly find a flight to Philadelphia and way to continue to Atlantic City if I win.

BUT

I can't conceive of being able to go as work is already being very accomodating about me having to be driver to take kid to/from school until wife's driving priveleges are restored and can't justify kid not going to school so if I get heads up I will be dumping chips.

Thanks for overlay Pauly!

Sadly driving duties will force me to miss WCOOP 16 and WCOOP 30 as well.

WCOOP

I was goofing around and entered a $5 Rebuy WCOOP sat, I don't think I lost a race during monkey hour and amassed a top 15 stack for an $11 outlay.

Sadly I look through Pokerstars WCOOP schedule and realize with it's 11:30 am and 1:30 pm Pacific start times I would have to take a day off to play a non-weekend event.

To play a weekend event I am going to need a lot of $W or to learn new games.

I would like to play:

WCOOP 16 12-Sep Fri 16:30 $215 PL Omaha [1R1A] $300,000

WCOOP 30 19-Sep Fri 16:30 $1050 PL Omaha [1R1A] $500,000

WCOOP 6 would be playable if I assume that I have cashed if I make day 2.

This would mean I have to run my $530 $W upp to $2100 $W to play 3 events I'd like.

InstantTragedy sent me an IM about new Monday Blogger Poker Tourney:

Date: Monday's starting August 4th

Time : 10 P.M. ET

Full Tilt Poker

Buy In: $10 + $1 (May change due to special events)

Format : Single Stack NLHE (May change due to special events)

PW : Boom

I am still suffering some post BBT blogger tourney burnout but may show up especially since next week is definite miss for Las Vegas.

Played my live poker tourney in Morgan Hill only to be crippled by Right Wing Owen Nolan calling off all his chips with an A rag, if only I knew how many penalty minutes he averaged I might have been comfortable calling him a donkey.

The Jason Bay Era begins

The maps for Page 2 polls are always interesting. When the question is who will win next golf tournament Tiger Woods or Field? 49 states choose Tiger, Nevada always chooses field. Today's Manny legacy poll is interesting because as big a goofball as Manny is I have to believe the Massachusett respondents got it right.

Over his career Manny averages 39 doubles, 40 HomeRuns and 130 RBIs a season. Albert Pujols has got to be the only right handed hitter more feared in majors today and he has been doing it half as long.

If wagering were available I would wager that Scott Boras orchestrated most of this in order to get paid. It will be interesting to see how much the Cubs, Mets or even Yankees shell out to add Manny to lineup next season.

It is a sad day in Red Sox nation when Manny has to go because he has quit on team.