Monday, April 27, 2009

Running Like Crap

Got stacked 3 times in PLO cash yesterday:

Top set + straight on rainbow flop, lost to top 2 pair and side pot to straight, when both went runner runner flush.

Top set lost to top 2 pair + gutshots twice where both times 2 of a suit were on flop.

I also lost numerous 70/30s.

Ran only child bad in the Brit blogger game when I ran TT into AK and AA and failed to fold TT against a better hand and also failed to suck out.

Seat 1: Joanne1111 (4,955)
Seat 2: muhctim (3,320)
Seat 3: cloud71 (4,115)
Seat 4: lightning36 (3,445)
Seat 5: Julkeus (3,550)
Seat 6: bayne_s (9,900)
Seat 7: columbo (4,345)
Seat 8: Astin (20,950)
Seat 9: pushmonkey72 (8,420)
everyone antes 50
muhctim posts the small blind of 200
cloud71 posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bayne_s [Tc Td]
lightning36 folds
Julkeus folds
bayne_s raises to 1,100
columbo folds
Astin folds
pushmonkey72 folds
Joanne1111 raises to 4,905, and is all in
muhctim calls 3,070, and is all in
cloud71 folds
bayne_s has 15 seconds left to act

This was my dilemma:
I am absolutely convinced Joanne has AK or AQ, muhctim I am sure is JJ+ or AK (later play convinces me I gave too much credit) which means I am calling less than 1970 to win 8k as probably 4.5:1 dog but calling another 1635 as 55% fav

bayne_s calls 3,805
Joanne1111 shows [As Kc]
muhctim shows [Ah Ad]
bayne_s shows [Tc Td]

turns out I am 65% for side pot and 19% for main. Mathematically expected value of call is !4100 chips so in cash I have to call. If I win I have chip stack that is Astin sized but from chip utility standpoint fold probably better.

*** FLOP *** [9c Kd 2h]
*** TURN *** [9c Kd 2h] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [9c Kd 2h 4s] [9h]
Joanne1111 shows two pair, Kings and Nines
bayne_s shows two pair, Tens and Nines
Joanne1111 wins the side pot (3,270) with two pair, Kings and Nines
muhctim shows two pair, Aces and Nines
muhctim wins the main pot (10,660) with two pair, Aces and Nines
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 13,930 Main pot 10,660. Side pot 3,270. Rake 0
Board: [9c Kd 2h 4s 9h]
Seat 1: Joanne1111 (button) showed [As Kc] and won (3,270) with two pair, Kings and Nines
Seat 2: muhctim (small blind) showed [Ah Ad] and won (10,660) with two pair, Aces and Nines
Seat 3: cloud71 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: lightning36 folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Julkeus folded before the Flop
Seat 6: bayne_s showed [Tc Td] and lost with two pair, Tens and Nines
Seat 7: columbo folded before the Flop
Seat 8: Astin folded before the Flop
Seat 9: pushmonkey72 folded before the Flop

Worst part about hands like this is I get distracted subsequent hands wondering was math correct?? Was it right chip utility decision??

Riverchasers is next.

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