Latest Prop Bet

After watching above and realized Sarah Palin created the parody run by SNL I realized what new prop bet with Waffles had to be.

Bayne: you give me 2:1 odds and I will wager Palin is not McCain's running mate by Novemeber
sirfwalgman: wow thats an interesting bet
sirfwalgman: What date is the election?
Bayne: I think it is November 4th
sirfwalgman: 25 bucks
Bayne: I put up $25 to win $50?
sirfwalgman: only 25 because I think this is a total 50/50 proposition
sirfwalgman: oh
sirfwalgman: no
sirfwalgman: you put up 12.50 to win 25 lol
Bayne: okay
Bayne: $12.50 to win $25
sirfwalgman: lol
sirfwalgman: yeah
Bayne: it's a wager
sirfwalgman: ok
sirfwalgman: I think personally
sirfwalgman: it would be too embaressing for him to do that this late
sirfwalgman: even if she is a total wreck
sirfwalgman: but I could be wrong
Bayne: I think his will to win > risk of embarassment and he wanted Lieberman for VP anyway
sirfwalgman: she went from being a HUGE asset to being a joke
sirfwalgman: the Democrats must love this

Baseball Playoff Time

Met up with LJ and Lucko for SF Giants home finale, they claimed to be in town as birthday present but coincidentally this weekend was the culmination of the Folsom Street Fair (leatherweek) NSFW.  We met up at local bar so we could watch morning football games and the historic last game at Shea (and Mets elimination from playoffs SSDY).  

Good aspect of wife meeting LJ is I no longer seem obsessive about fantasy football.

Pathetically this was also 1st trip for family and I to see baseball game at AT&T park.  In my defense Red Sox don't visit.  I was disappointed that Manny took day off (what a surprise) so no opportunity to berate with my best boston accent.  Wife and daughter were troopers as neither really likes baseball but promise of taking them to The Stinking Rose kept daughter well behaved.  We will all reek of garlic for about 3 days as we went with traditional Garlic roasted in EVOO and butter with hint of anchovies appetizer.

The trip home was painful as route I am used to taking from North Beach to 101 was blocked for Folsom Street Festivities.  I was able to endure the traffic, the many leather clad people walking on the adjacent sidewalks until we passed a bear bar that was overflowing.  Daughter spotted a hairy man with large belly wearing short leather shorts and suspenders and said "Does that fat man think wearing those shorts and showing his belly think it will help him have S E X" (yes she spelled out sex).  I did not need that image in my head while driving so told daughter "Mommy will explain that to you after I am dead".  Evil daughter laughed and kept pushing my buttons but thankfully wife got her to stop tormenting me.

Edit: The car this morning had overwhelming garlic aroma and I had to drive with windows down.  I love The STinking Rose but may have to get rental next time.

Debate Night

Having opted not to vote myself and wife would vote for pro-choice Hoover over pro-life FDR we will drop daughter off at "8th Grade dance" and see a movie "Nights in Rodanthe" rather than watch alternating sound bites on talking points that passes for debate in this country.

My Grandfather lived in Nags Head, NC and his brother lived in Hateras, NC so I've been to Rodanthe.  After you stop swimming or fishing there isn't shit to do in Rodanthe.

The Great Schlep

The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.

My apologies to any MOT I may offend by posting w/o membership.

Victory

Waffles had a nice run but came up short in Mookie.  Surviving the donkey beats to cash in 4/9  Mookies is impressive.  Better luck next bet.

My own Mookie run when OMGItsPokerfool insta-called my AKs jam and rivered two pair with 54s (same fawking suit).

Skillz

Full Tilt Poker Game #8200877457: Blogger Skillz Game (58958300), Table 2 - 150/300 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 23:18:38 ET - 2008/09/23

Seat 1: bayne_s (16,050)

Seat 4: PirateLawyer (17,481)

Seat 6: lightning36 (2,949)

Seat 9: cemfredmd (2,520)

cemfredmd posts the big blind of 300

The button is in seat #6

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to bayne_s [3c Js 4s Jc]

bayne_s calls 300

PirateLawyer calls 300

cemfredmd: gg to both of you

bayne_s: ggs

lightning36 folds

cemfredmd checks

*** FLOP *** [Jd 9s Ks]

cemfredmd checks

3 pay, 4 left, PL has 6x 3rd, I have 5x 3rd.

bayne_s bets 900

PirateLawyer raises to 1,800

cemfredmd folds

To quote Herm Edwards: "You play to win the GAME" and I think I am 60/40

bayne_s raises to 6,300

lightning36: The princes and the paupers   lol

PirateLawyer raises to 17,181, and is all in

bayne_s calls 9,450, and is all in

PirateLawyer shows [4c Ts Qh Ad]

bayne_s shows [3c Js 4s Jc]

Uncalled bet of 1,431 returned to PirateLawyer

*** TURN *** [Jd 9s Ks] [5h]

*** RIVER *** [Jd 9s Ks 5h] [9d]

PirateLawyer shows a straight, King high

bayne_s shows a full house, Jacks full of Nines

bayne_s wins the pot (32,400) with a full house, Jacks full of Nines

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot 32,400 | Rake 0

Board: [Jd 9s Ks 5h 9d]

Seat 1: bayne_s showed [3c Js 4s Jc] and won (32,400) with a full house, Jacks full of Nines

Seat 4: PirateLawyer showed [4c Ts Qh Ad] and lost with a straight, King high

Seat 6: lightning36 (button) didn't bet (folded)

Seat 9: cemfredmd (big blind) folded on the Flop

32k, vs. 3k, 2500 and 1400 with 150/300 blinds the rest is a formality. But did bubble PL dirty.

Dealt to bayne_s [Jh 9d Kd 2c]

bayne_s raises to 1,050

PirateLawyer calls 981, and is all in

lightning36 folds

cemfredmd folds

bayne_s shows [Jh 9d Kd 2c]

PirateLawyer shows [9c Th Kh Jd]

Uncalled bet of 69 returned to bayne_s

*** FLOP *** [Ks 2s Qh]

*** TURN *** [Ks 2s Qh] [2h]

*** RIVER *** [Ks 2s Qh 2h] [7c]

bayne_s shows a full house, Twos full of Kings

PirateLawyer shows two pair, Kings and Twos

bayne_s wins the pot (2,412) with a full house, Twos full of Kings

PirateLawyer stands up

13 show up for the Mookie  and I have another score manana.

My Take on Bailout

First a disclaimer:

I took 2 classes with Dr. Biven in 1983, one of them was pass/fail.  The thing I remember most was a skinny 6'9" basketball player (who had no handle and no jump shot) telling another basketball player "man, all I need to know about economics is how to spend my million dollar NBA contract" after getting a D on a test.  I decided after the 1986 draft that John Salley knew more about economics than I did.

Treasury Secretary Paulsen has proposed a $700 billion bailout for Wall Street on top of all the other bailouts that Hoy mentioned today. Ben Stein had mentioned that "The amount of subprime that defaulted was at most - after recovery in liquidation - about $250 billion."  

Foreclosure rates are at 2% nationally and delinquency rates are at 6%. and US median price home is at ~$200k. For purposes of using round numbers we will work with 50 million as total number of mortgages in US.

$700 billion would seem to cover $14k/mortgage and would seem to be able to buy goverment ownership of 7% of every home.

If we are going socialist anyway why not try "Bubble Up Economics".

Give homeowners option to opt into program where current mortgage holders can choose to have goverment buy up to 10% of homes, in event of future foreclosure goverment gets sum invested back ahead of any recovered money to homeowner.

The 10% payment from goverment goes directly to mortgage holder and applies towards equity but a 1 time chance to refinance into fixed rate mortgage is also offered.  If there is future sale goverment gets (up to)  10% of gross. 

All the bundled mortgages and derivatives become stronger which reduces the banks issues.

All of this is a bad beat for me as I sold my house in 2007 anticipating the sub-prime mortgages would drive housing prices down and I would be able to buy after the dip in San Jose area.

My preference is still no bailout as I have prepared myself for it but if there is bailout rewarding those who stupidly overextended to get house seems better than rewarding thos who stupidly created  "weapons of financial mass destruction." (Warren Buffet's name for the financial derivatives).

On financial note I bought Asta Funding which is a company that is 78% off it's 52 week high and makes it's money buying "bad debt" at a discount and recouping more than expected.  Just in case Goverment is just giving money away.

Saturday's with Pauly

Kid is on a trip with her BFF's church group to Carmel.  I may have embarrassed her since I enabled 15 day free trial of Sprint's family locator service. and little did I know they seem to send a text message to every phone when you set it up.  Can tell she has reached Carmel.

Running joke in family has been that I was going to have a GPS chip implanted in her but after we watched a "Hogan knows best" (clearly poorly titled) episode. 

I registered to play Pauly's, will be tracking kid's return and may have to exit for pickup if I go deep.

Best Roach Ever

31 tokens, sitting 31st, both of us all in with the ante and dude who went out 32nd had his K9 rivered by Q7 after flopping a 9.

Sadly finished 19th in $4k when semi-bluffing wanna be Euro rivered gutshots on me twice.

Poker results did not matter so much yesterday as at 9:43 Pacific I bought October $22.50 calls for Morgan Stanley.  MS was trading at less than $18 at time. 

If I had gambled same amount on September calls expiring today then I could afford MiamiDon's and Sprstoner's escort bills for a year. 

The $102 Bounty in Mookie

Bayne: I waited until 1st place in Mookie was over $198.15 to register

Bayne: now will take you out

sirfwalgman: lmao

sirfwalgman: did I post the amount I need to win?

Bayne: I looked at Mookie standings

sirfwalgman: im like 192 behind or something

sirfwalgman: 190 something

Bayne: 198.15

sirfwalgman: lol

sirfwalgman: ok

sirfwalgman: i feel good about tonight brb

sirfwalgman: say something hatefull

Bayne: LJ will win

Bayne: I had to unregister

sirfwalgman: lol i see you

sirfwalgman: you didnt unreg early enough

Bayne: it dipped down then went back over

sirfwalgman: LMAO

Bayne: when it switch to paid 7 1st was 199.10 so I exited

1st place went back over $200 so I registered late.

Bayne: that was like $102 bounty

All I heard was crickets.

Seat 1: bayne_s (2,865)
Seat 2: TheSlinger (2,830)
Seat 3: RaisingCayne (3,810)
Seat 4: Joshuacarlsen (5,235)
Seat 5: ugly chimp (4,125)
Seat 6: irongirl01 (4,160)
Seat 7: Loretta8 (3,405)
Seat 8: SirFWALGMan (1,075)
Seat 9: BuddyDank (2,995)
TheSlinger posts the small blind of 30
RaisingCayne posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bayne_s [Kd Ks]
Joshuacarlsen folds
ugly chimp folds
irongirl01 folds
Loretta8 folds
SirFWALGMan calls 60
BuddyDank folds
bayne_s raises to 270
TheSlinger folds
RaisingCayne folds
SirFWALGMan raises to 1,075, and is all in
bayne_s calls 805
SirFWALGMan shows [Qh 4h]
bayne_s shows [Kd Ks]
*** FLOP *** [9s 7s 8d]
*** TURN *** [9s 7s 8d] [Qs]
*** RIVER *** [9s 7s 8d Qs] [Ah]
SirFWALGMan shows a pair of Queens
bayne_s shows a pair of Kings
bayne_s wins the pot (2,240) with a pair of Kings
SirFWALGMan: lol gg
SirFWALGMan stands up

Bankroll Managment when running bad

I woke up at the brink of kickoff.  Went 0 for 6 in Brawl Chippies including a beautiful loss in 3rd one where I jammed KK and was called by A3, AQ and AQ and the case Ace flopped.  This may have made me tilty enough to continue until time and bankroll ran low.

What picture below fails to capture is I had already accumulated 7 bounties in KO.  I was down to a wafflesque $2 after registering for KO.

Another important reminder:  If cell phone has features leading to greater use, (ie camera) odds of daughter losing it increase.  She managed to maintain possession 3 days, back to old phone she hates for her.

Goverment at it's finest

In August wife's doctor sent forms to DMV as requested due the 22nd.  On Sept 12 wife recieved a letter from DMV informing her effective Sept 15 her driving privelege's were suspended due to seizure condition.

Paperwork did inform that if there is no re-occurence and doctor is willing to vouch that medication will continue to prevent (as was already stated in original paperwork) suspension can be lifted. There is also a requirment that 90 days have elapsed since condition was contained.

My reaction is I am off the hook for driving my wife around this weekend!  The goverment in it's wisdom has decided that although she is "unfit to drive for medical reasons" the condition does not apply yet.

Means I should be free to play Saturday's with DrP.

An important reminder for fathers

No poker content:

If batteries lasted forever I would still have a Sprint Q-Phone.  It was a fine flip phone that could take a beating.  The Motorola Star-Tac phone I had was lost in a cab in Las Vegas and I had multiple battery packs for it as it was a very popular phone amongst a few former co-workers and I had collected battery packs when they upgraded.  My Sanyo SCP-7300 had gotten to the point where charge would only last 6 hours (powered up no calls), California made hands free a requirement for drivers and as kid's chauffeur my driving had tripled.

This is a picture of my new phone:

Obvious problem is teenage daughter has Sanyo SCP-7300 which was my wife's phone.  Wife has SCP-3100,  which is also flip phone (but with camera in pink).  Reason daughter has the old beat up phone is she had phone and purse stolen so needed to learn consequences of not being protective of stuff.

Wife and daughter were both all over my case as neither saw the need for me to have the phone with most features (I did not play the who pays the bills card) as to quote them I barely use my cell.  They have obviously overlooked amount of texting done with the serial drunk texter! 

I was aware there might be an issue and reason I had selected this phone had an even greater problem.  Sprint is currently running a buy 1 get 1 free special on the Rumor.  Net cost is $50 for 2 phones but the hidden land mine for me was due to newness of wife's phone the 2 for 1 special could only be applied to my number and daughter's.

I quickly gauged the situation at home and set a trap for kid, I offered to let her swap phone numbers with her mom so she could have 'pink phone' and secure agreement before wife got too hot and handed wife 2nd Rumor in green.

Daughter feels duped but still benefits with phone upgrade and failed in her effort to take green phone to school this morning.

I should have learned with the Christmas ipod incident that "cool gadgets" should be kept at parity with wife and daughter for household peace but I am a slow learner.

Other fathers need to learn from my example to avoid the stressful decisions on later streets.

Mook / Back to school night

LJ mentioned she got 300 POINTS for filling out a customer satisfaction survey on pokerstars.  The desire to fill out survey was too great so I signed on to pokerstars and no survey was offered :(  For grins I tried to play NL O8 for play chips but ban is enforced there too.

Mookie is tonight but I have to go to kid's back to school night.  I hate missing waffle's futile quest but wife likes to meet all of kid's teachers.

Running Bad

No one raised pre-flop so that didn't cost me anything.

No one bet flop, (I am not betting wrap on paired board especially when it also makes low).

That free turn card sure was costly.

I also lost a step 4 when other 3k stack with 7 left decided that 66 he raised from CO was monster when I re-raised from BB with JJ. My reraise was only to 2700 so Raise button illuminated and he might have thought 300 raise represented fold equity.  Of course 6 flopped .

I opted out another 24 hours from Stars.

But Tilt is next for this under straight flush abuse.

Sunday's on Pokerstars

Step 4:

I reraised KK, SB called off 1/3 of stack pre with 66, initial raiser called off 1/4 of stack pre with 99.

678 flop they both got all in K turn, T river.

4 WCOOP sats

33 jams I call with KK, 3 on flop, IGHN.

KJo jams I call with QQ.  Q and 2 baby flop, turn 9 river T, IGHN.

I raise pre, 55 jams, I have KK and call, 5 on river IGHN.

Near bubble of supersat to $320 ME sat A8o minraises, I jam TT, dude getting 3:2 on money calls and flops 2p, turns Aces over boat river is worthless T.  I suppose he had to call as I might make move with lesser A (it is Sunday on Stars).

$200k, I raise pre with 77, AQ calls and goes Broadway on river.

I make appropriate response.

Dear bayne_s  You have requested to partake in PokerStars Responsible Gaming  Self-Exclusion. Your exclusion period will start once you exit all  tables.  Your ability to make deposits and participate in any PokerStars  gaming activity has now been closed for 1 days. You will be able to  regain access after 2008/09/08 16:23 ET.  During this period of exclusion you will be able to login and perform  all normal functions except participate in games, make deposits or  use transfer of funds. It's also important to note that PokerStars is  unable to reverse Self Exclusions within the specified time. If you  have questions about the self-exclusion program, please send them to  wecare@pokerstars.com.  If you are registered for any online tournaments during your  exclusion period, you will be unregistered, and your buy-in will be  refunded.  Any other funds remaining in your account will remain  there until such time you decide to cashout. Those funds will be  available to you if you choose to play at the end of your exclusion  period.  In case you are interested, we are providing two links of  organizations that offer free counseling and advice on responsible  and problem gaming: www.gamcare.co.uk and  http://www.gamblersanonymous.org  Regards PokerStars Responsible Gaming Team

So kind of them to suggest counseling AFTER an opt out.  I could have just shut down but somehow felt opting out sent a statement that I was not pleased with how poorly the laws of probability had held on Stars for the day.

Gawd I want play to always be that bad on Sundays.  No one seems to fold Ace rag or any pp preflop. I just want to have some hands hold up.

Targeted marketing

I blame Al.

Communication is Key

This morning I was prepared to begin chauffeur duties well ahead of schedule so opted to check email.  All of a sudden teenage daughter is screaming at my wife and wife is getting louder as well as they argue.  Apparently one of teachers was going to do a "supply check" and daughter could not find a ruler.

to paraphrase argument:

1. Daughter "I told you I needed ruler"

2. Wife "you did not"

3. Go to step 1

I believe I managed to intervene with "why don't we go to school early today" about 15 iterations into above.  I think they will make up this afternoon after school.  

In car daughter was trying to convince me she told her (daughter and I both have tendency to not like to repeat self say something once and have it register).  This is made worse as wife and daughter both have tendency to forget anything that is trivial or deemed stupid.  I have found introducing profanity ("I was fucking serious about") gets around wife's trivial filter but would not be right to teach this technique to daughter.

Daughter and I stopped at grocery store on way to school and got ruler so that de-stressed her a little .  I also asked if she had reminded her mother about ruler while they were in that very store yesterday afternoon (she had not) to take some of blame from the wife.

I think they will make up this afternoon after school. 

My misread of Chad's football bets has left me +$20 on year, I might as well post now as this is probably high water mark.

COngrats to Evy on her big score at Borgata!

Your Quest is Futile

Today the troll's hopes to win Mookie prop bet should finally be crushed!

Daughter was telling me her vocabulary words for week as I chauffeuerd her home. She asked for my help in explaining the difference between empathy and sympathy. I thought my answer was outstanding, "I have sympathy for your pain as you go through your period but mommy can have empathy because she also understands what you are going through." Child's response was "you don't have sympathy either (further ranting tuned out)" Another vocabulary word for the week is democrat. Although we live in Northern California I felt the need to ask "Was republican a vocabulary word this week?" Answer as suspected was "no".

I discovered my lame check request from Bodog did not take as they "did not have address documentation". Decided I will join Chad on his Degenerate Gambler challenge during regular season.

Before the layoffs I had placed a $30 bet on the Rams to win NFC @ 30:1, and $70 on Rams to win Super Bowl @75:1. These were part of a hedge plan discussed with my sports betting sensei and I will merely require Rams to make playoffs to turn profit.

I have also followed Chad's lead this week and will win $20 each on Dallas under, Giants and Lions. I also placed a small parlay bet on all 3. I will be profitable at 2/3 correct. Bets are placed and I have most doubt about the under, Chad is correct that execution is generally poor the 1st week of season but defensive breakdowns lead to points, offensive breakdowns lead to turnovers which also lead to points.

Draft Results

Labor Day Weekend means Fantasy Football Drafts. Three are complete, two to go.

Keepers were Westbrook, Calvin Johnson and Michael Turner. It is 10 team league that starts TWO quarterbacks last year I took the approach that I would take 3 mediocre quarterbacks and shuffle them depending on matchups except for bye weeks. Last year I drafted Trent Green, Jake Delhomme and 3rd QB also injured by week 3.

This year I have 4 QBs (3 with week 7 bye doh) and too many young players. But expect team to do better regardless as last year's injuries made competing impossible.

1 other team in league has any FFL experience beyond last season. Last year team that drafted Tomlinson, Moss and Brady was tearing up league 8-2 (2 losses to moi)

he made some bogus trade week 10 where he and another team were providing 1 week loaner to cover bye weeks. I was so pissed over this I convinced him to trade Brady and RB for Hasselbeck and Bush. "Weather in New England will turn and Hasselbeck always improves 2nd half" was clincher.

I took kid to orthodontist and ended up with this roster from draft autopick of yahoo default rankings. Still anticipaye making playoffs.

MiamiDon invited me into this league last season. Got 1st pick which means Tomlinson and pray at RB. Romo being available at pick 20 forces me to deal with being a Romosexual this season. WR are decent but one of my pupu platter running backs need to emerge.