Thursday, January 22, 2009

More Housing (Poker at end)

Calculated Risk (one of my favorite financial blogs) has a post today commenting on Bay Area house pricing. Apparently Housing data for December was just released and the median price is down 50% from peak and that foreclosure sales accounted for half the housing resales.

When I look inside the data it is the two least desirable counties that have higher sales volumes and bigger median price drops which leads me to believe that it is the "starter homes" where people stretched finances and accepted commutes that was hardest hit.

Sales volume was 6889, which puts ~3500 of these homes as foreclosure sales and new median price is $330k. If half of drop in median is due to mix in sales and half is drop in value then State of California now gets $1300 less in property taxes then it did a year ago on 3500 homes for a quick $5M drop in tax revenues for the last month in one county. On positive side those 3500 foreclosed homes would have previously been defaulting on the property taxes.

Throw in SoCal's Inland empire economy destruction of lost construction jobs and foreclosures and 60 or so employees at my company who will stop paying income tax in near future and I am beginning to see how a state can be $14B short in revenue off a $40B budget.

Astin jackAced me successfully (defeating JJ) a few hands later HeffMike reraised JackAce against my QQ and failed to deliver a jackAce beat. I make comment in chat (still pissed about being short due to Astin beat) along lines of "It's a blogger tourney, you can't possibly fold jackAce" sorry Heff. I avenge my earlier beat when Astin calls my raise with the jackAces little brother the jacKing off and my pocket Astins hold up against his flopped top pair. Mookie eliminates me when through some miracle his JJ wins a flip against my AK when he dodges a river King kick to the junk.

I am still running like a god at PLO (40.88 BB/100) yesterday cracking AA with high connectors and KK with low connectors, (I love the hold'em visitors that can't fold AA KJ69 board). In KK's defense he thought he had outs after flopping top set but I had already turned my straight flush when I raised his pot bet on turn.

1 comment:

Heffmike said...

thought you sounded a little tilty there.... just one of those things where "hey, he may not really have a hand, and if he does, well, call and flop goot..." jackace FAIL, obv. ;-)