BBT (Evaluating the Race for 2nd)

Thought it would be a good time to lend my expertise to handicapping the race for 2nd in the BBT. Odds are for entertainment purposes only. I unlike Blinders will not be accepting wagers.

Let’s evaluate the contenders one by one.

BuddyDank is currently in 2nd with a 135 point lead. Buddy’s his trend is to get into the points 75% of time and carries a quite respectable 41.9 pt/event. I would have to believe Buddy will end the series in the neighborhood of 1300-1420 points range. The Mookie was also one of rare nights where I paid attention to the likely “pursuers” due to presence of Iggy, OOSSUUU and Buddy all playing at a common table as points bubble approached. Buddy clearly felt he was having an off night and prioritized folding to the points since 2nd in BBT is worth more money than winning RiverChaser’s and Mookie combined I see this style of play continuing.

Having set a points target let us now evaluate who can reach 1420.

MiamiDon is ninth in the standings with 898.5, he has proven he can put on a run (see beginning of BBT) but with 5 events left one of which is a Riverchaser’s HORSE which typically awards 110 points for 1st vs. the 210 points a Big Game victory will bring or the170 points that 1st will bring in the other 3 events. Don has skillz to win the needed events but still probably needs an additional 120 points in Mookie & RiverChaser’s to achieve 1420 target. I believe the lure of live poker leaves Don at 10:1 to play 5 events so he would be 50:1 to take 2nd at best. All below Don in standings face an even more taunting task, as a group the field below would have to rate as 40:1 (We all know what a tear Chad can go on in MTT and now that we have also learned that Waffles is a better MTT player than Chad everyone better watch out)

I can’t really disagree greatly with this post about the play of oossuuu754 and Iggy other than to add that Iggy’s disregard for reaching points in BBT events has hurt him in the standings. I believe since mid-May Iggy has busted out within 10 spots of points bubble 5 or 6 times and some of those hands were on bluffs or entering into known best case races. OOSSUUU and Iggy would seem to have equivalent chances to reach 2nd due to Iggy being 35 points ahead but likely given past trends to miss one event. Both are certainly capable of winning at least one event as we head down the final 8 days of the challenge.

jeciimd and Astin being 14 points apart in the standings would seem to provide equivalent chances for 2nd but when we look closer we find some interesting data. Astin has made final Table in 3 of the last 5 events he’s played (There might be another blogger running better lately but name escapes me) , at Racetrack this is Horse I am looking for as odds are still probably long given current 231 point differential but if he can convert a final table appearance into a victory he’s got a shot. Jeciimd on the other hand still sits with Zero cashes. This defies all imagination. When he breaks his slump he will go on a tear, he may bust out of slump Monday but talks with Smokkee can only lead to one conclusion, don’t bet on a trend to turn.

NewinNov and RecessRampage are another 40 points back, they are in a similar boat to Don in that key for them to catch up is a win the BigGame and final table in other events both do have 7 Final Tables under their belt so not out of question but odds remain long.

BuddyDank 3:1
summer_babe 4:1
oossuuu754 6:1
jeciimd 9:1
Astin 5:1
NewinNov 12:1
RecessRampage 12:1

Field 40:1

Buddy, Iggy and oossuuu have all previous shown a tendency to wither when trying to run down an in all modesty STRONG front-runner. It will be interesting to see how Buddy handles the pressure of being the pursued. Especially in light of Iggy's past record on placing bounties on clearly misplaced targets (like I would forget about placing bounty on Don and not me). Jec has broken form so he slips in the betting line more than points should dictate while Astin must be moved up in betting line. The real factor that could influence this race is how many of the premium point slots will the current leader snag in the remaining 5 events?

Remember the more people that you get to sign up the greater the points pools to contend for.

Tournament: Riverchasers Special Event #5
When: Sunday, June 24th, 16:00pm ET
Game: HORSE DeepstackBuyin: $24+2
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Password: hammer
Tournament: The Mookie
When: Wednesday. 10pm ET
Buyin: $10+1
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