Wednesday, October 24, 2007

You make the call?

$28,000 Guarantee (29592435), Table 100 - 400/800 Ante 100 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:44:48 ET - 2007/10/25
Seat 1: NotoriousKAP (5,620)
Seat 2: bayne_s (3,190)
Seat 3: PhiliBuster (18,226)
Seat 4: RV4U2 (24,639)
Seat 5: Cbone3 (38,029)
Seat 6: ur bank acct (42,492)
Seat 7: gambloor (21,188)
Seat 8: BakedZito (17,707)
Seat 9: jimiredd (8,079)
NotoriousKAP antes 100
bayne_s antes 100
PhiliBuster antes 100
RV4U2 antes 100
Cbone3 antes 100
ur bank acct antes 100
gambloor antes 100
BakedZito antes 100
jimiredd antes 100
NotoriousKAP posts the small blind of 400
bayne_s posts the big blind of 800
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bayne_s [2h 2s]
PhiliBuster folds
RV4U2 folds
Cbone3 folds
ur bank acct folds
gambloor folds
BakedZito raises to 3,200
jimiredd raises to 7,979, and is all in
NotoriousKAP folds
NotoriousKAP: one move pirate
NotoriousKAP: i mean one eye
bayne_s has 15 seconds left to act
bayne_s has requested TIME

jimiredd: i got yer one eye hangin'

2300 is in the pot to start, I have 2290 behind, you can tell from the chat snippets that jimiredd has been jamming a lot.

I am getting roughly 3:1 and have ducks. If I am real lucky they both have AK and I am 60% to win. If I am up against 3 overs I am 44% if fading 4 overs 33%. All these are +EV to call, the -EV to call against are 1 pp or 2 pp which I am 18% or 15% against plus I am shorty and only have little over orbit left.

Still overcalling with ducks seems inherently wrong.

But the Math is what always wins with me.

I am even more amazed that the 33 calls but as I said jammer had 1 move.

From there I picked up some good hands and got up to 10th. But ran TT into QQ when I thought I liked the K K K flop.

I managed to lose a big pot early when my preflop raise failed to chase a JT who hit a JT 4 flop and I overplayed my over pair. Recovered and was finally about to get back over starting chips an hour and half in when A7 in SB chose to re-raise jam me pre-flop. My KK was no match on a 14 Ace in deck day.

1 comment:

Proto said...

I try not to play small to medium pairs after a raise and a re-raise. If I'm overcalling pre-flop, I have aces. When a dude only has one move, you can never be sure what they are doing. Save it for the best of hands.